Statistical analysis: Wayne Smith’s rugby blueprint

Statistical analysis: Wayne Smith’s rugby blueprint

Wayne Smith’s appearance on Sky Sport NZ’s The Breakdown this week was an eventful one.

As well as casting his discerning eye over the “robotic” shapes of modern professional rugby, he also provided some great insight into how he has approached his role as Director of Rugby at the Kobelco Steelers in Japan’s Top League since taking over — alongside Kiwi head coach Dave Dillon — in 2018.

Continue reading “Statistical analysis: Wayne Smith’s rugby blueprint”

Super Rugby Aotearoa preview: analysing Clayton McMillan’s style of play

On Monday 22nd February, I’ll be co-hosting a webinar with Brian Fitzpatrick of BF Sports Analysis previewing the upcoming Super Rugby Aotearoa season. If you’re interested in attending this event, you can sign up to receive more details here.

We’ll be collaborating to dive into the detail of some of the tactical and technical trends that are likely to be prominent in the 2021 edition of the competition, taking a look at each of the 5 teams in the process.

One of the questions we’ll be addressing is what to expect from the Chiefs, who went winless during Super Rugby Aotearoa 2020 and have appointed Clayton McMillan as their interim head coach for the year in Warren Gatland’s absence.

McMillan has been the head coach of the Maori All Blacks since 2017, and led the Bay of Plenty Steamers in the Mitre 10 Cup between 2015 and 2020.

In this article, we’ll briefly discuss what his 2020 Steamers side (who made it to the Premiership semi-finals) looked like on the field — but be sure to sign up for our webinar on the 22nd to discover how this tactical approach might play out on the field in Hamilton in 2021.


Continue reading “Super Rugby Aotearoa preview: analysing Clayton McMillan’s style of play”
2020 Farah Palmer Cup preview

2020 Farah Palmer Cup preview

Sign up to The Tip-On, a free weekly newsletter containing analysis of professional rugby in New Zealand, for coverage of the Farah Palmer Cup every Thursday throughout the competition.

With Sevens stars Tyla Nathan-Wong, Portia Woodman and Stacey Fluhler all a chance to line out alongside established Black Ferns Te Kura Ngata-Aerengamate, Kennedy Simon and Chelsea Alley, Saturday’s Waikato vs. Northland fixture to open the 2020 Farah Palmer Cup will be the perfect introduction to a star-studded tournament.

Continue reading “2020 Farah Palmer Cup preview”
Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Hurricanes

Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Hurricanes

Sign up to The Tip-On, a free weekly newsletter – beginning on Thursday 18th June – containing analysis of professional rugby in New Zealand.

Without Beauden Barrett in their squad for the first time in a decade, head coach John Plumtree having left the franchise for Ian Foster’s All Blacks coaching team and with Ardie Savea injured on the sideline, the Hurricanes can almost be forgiven for starting 2020 with a whimper. An unedifying 27-0 loss to the Stormers at Newlands in which they weren’t able to fire a shot felt like an apt metaphor for a club still scrambling to find its feet as the season kicked off.

However, after sneaking a late victory over the Jaguares in Buenos Aires a week later – thanks in large part to Beauden’s younger brother Jordie, who finished the match with a 63m penalty kick and try-saving tackle to his name – they were away, and home wins over the Sharks and Sunwolves swiftly followed.

Continue reading “Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Hurricanes”
Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Highlanders

Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Highlanders

Sign up to The Tip-On, a free weekly newsletter – beginning on Thursday 18th June – containing analysis of professional rugby in New Zealand.

Situated in the smallest of the 5 urban centres to support a Super Rugby franchise and over 300 kilometres to the south of their nearest competitor, the Highlanders are in an unenviable position relative to the other New Zealand clubs.

The Dunedin side has consistently been reliant on bringing in players from other provinces to supplement those from its own catchment area – aided by the fact that it is a student town with a strong university rugby club – and with a steady period of good recruitment and “continuity” in the later years of the Jamie Joseph-Tony Brown-Scott McLeod ticket, they were able to challenge consistently at the top end of the Super competition.

However, in the 3 years since Brown and McLeod departed – the former joining Joseph with Japan, having succeeded him as head coach for a season, and the latter moving into a position with the All Blacks – there has been significant turnover and disruption. Although Brown has returned to Dunedin for the 2020 season as an assistant – and brought some exciting ideas back with him from the Brave Blossoms – Aaron Mauger has had to watch on as the majority of their title-winning side of 2015 departs for overseas clubs.

Continue reading “Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Highlanders”
Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Crusaders

Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Crusaders

Sign up to The Tip-On, a free weekly newsletter – beginning on Thursday 18th June – containing analysis of professional rugby in New Zealand.

With the end of 2019 came a changing of the guard in Christchurch. The departures of Kieran Read and Tim Bateman – whose time at the franchise was broken up by stints at the Hurricanes and in Japan – saw the final threads between the current Crusaders’ playing squad and the Robbie Deans era broken, both players having started the 2008 final victory over the Waratahs.

A number of other household names also moved on: between them, Owen Franks, Matt Todd, Ryan Crotty and Israel Dagg contributed a substantial proportion of the 380 All Blacks caps and 1,009 Crusaders appearances which left Rugby Park at the conclusion of last season.

Continue reading “Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Crusaders”
Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Chiefs

Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Chiefs

Sign up to The Tip-On, a free weekly newsletter – beginning on Thursday 18th June – containing analysis of professional rugby in New Zealand.

Upon his return to Hamilton after 13 years in Wales, new Chiefs head coach Warren Gatland made clear his views on the need for the franchise to evolve its on-field approach:

“[T]he Chiefs have tended to go out there and play and expansive game, and we want to encourage them to do that, but we also want them to be smart…talking to the other coaches, they’ve felt that in the last couple of years they’ve tried to play a little bit too much rugby, and haven’t been smart about having the balance between playing a little bit of territory and putting pressure on other teams.”

Super Rugby: Warren Gatland wants Chiefs to play smarter brand of footy

He clearly implemented a number of tactical changes in the team’s 6 games before the Super Rugby competition’s suspension, and this was accompanied with markedly improved performance relative to last year: the Chiefs are 4-0-2 with an average points margin of +11.0 per game, after finishing Colin Cooper’s final season with a mark of -1.1 and a record of 7-2-8.

Continue reading “Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Chiefs”
Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Blues

Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Blues

Sign up to The Tip-On, a free weekly newsletter – beginning on Thursday 18th June – containing analysis of professional rugby in New Zealand.

As the only Kiwi franchise not to have won Super Rugby outright in the last 8 seasons, the Blues will have been more disappointed than most when the 2020 iteration of the competition was halted after 7 rounds as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sitting with a 5-0-2 record at its premature conclusion, their average scoring margin of +8.3 points per game over their 7 fixtures would have comfortably been their best single-season mark since 2012; their highest figure over this 8-year period is the +2.7 points per game they achieved in 2017.

Continue reading “Super Rugby Aotearoa: what to expect from the Blues”
What to expect from Super Rugby Aotearoa

What to expect from Super Rugby Aotearoa

Sign up to The Tip-On, a free weekly newsletter – beginning on Thursday 18th June – containing analysis of professional rugby in New Zealand.

The sun rises in spite of everything. After weeks of deprivation and uncertainty, hope has appeared on the horizon – or, at least, to those European rugby fans willing to set their alarms early on coming weekend mornings.

Whether you’re a Super Rugby regular who has risen ritualistically for years to watch the likes of Larkham, Carter and du Preez or a casual fan of the sport, the advent of Super Rugby Aotearoa is a heady prospect. The ten-week double-round-robin competition featuring the five New Zealand franchises – the Blues, Chiefs, Crusaders, Highlanders and Hurricanes – kicks off next Saturday at 6:05am (UK time), with a number of interesting rule variations.

Continue reading “What to expect from Super Rugby Aotearoa”